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Date : March 3, 2024
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Eagles vs. Giants preview by the numbers

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Another week, another stats preview. As always, using Sports Info Solutions. Let’s get straight into it!

Tendencies

Eagles Offense

No surprises here, but it’s good that the Eagles have started to use more 11 personnel because they have been more effective this year when doing so.


These numbers have also stayed very similar, although the Eagles’ play-action numbers have risen slightly. People moaned about the lack of motion last year, but no one is moaning now!


The Eagles have started running more gap-style runs in the past few weeks so I had a look at whether the Eagles are more efficient from either gap or zone. The Eagles rank 1st in EPA per run on gap runs, and 2nd in EPA per run on zone runs. Jeff Stoutland is a genius.


Eagles Defense

The defensive personnel has remained the same all year.


The stacked box numbers continue to rise each week and it shows that Gannon will adjust when needed.


These numbers have remained consistent over the past few weeks too. I had a look at the Eagles’ success when blitzing, and they currently rank 3rd in EPA when blitzing. Is there anything this defense can’t do well?!


Giants Offense

This is fascinating! Most NFL offenses are heavy 11 personnel with some 12 personnel thrown in. The Giants’ offense isn’t particularly talented, but they will test the Eagles’ defense with some interesting personnel looks.


This looks a bit like the Eagles’ offense! Daniel Jones can run so the Giants will be a threat with their RPOs. I’m sure I’m forgetting someone, but I can’t think of the Eagles playing a no-huddle RPO offense with a mobile quarterback this year.


The Giants love getting Jones on the move to try and negate the issues they have in pass protection. No surprise either, but they will run the ball into stacked boxes as they want to run their offense through Saquon Barkley.


Giants Defense

Well, this is also fascinating. This Giants team feels quite unique when looking at the tendencies. 235 snaps in 3-4-4 is a lot of snaps for a team in the modern NFL and I wonder if the Eagles will run more 12 personnel in this game to get them playing with only 4 defensive backs on the field and then throw the ball.


I guess it’s pretty easy to predict what the Giants are going to do on Sunday. Expect a stacked box and a one-high shell! Get ready for some one-on-one matchups on the outside for AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith! This feels like it should be a huge AJ Brown game.


Here’s another reason it should be a huge AJ Brown game… who is going to be able to cover him in one-on-one man coverage with a single-high safety? I expect the Eagles to come out and throw it early and often in this game. One reason the Giants play a lot of single-high man coverage is because they love to blitz. This feels like an old-school defense.


Statistical Matchup

Eagles Offense vs. Giants Defense

I said that I expect the Eagles to throw a lot when looking at the tendencies of the Giants’ defense… but I think they will be able to run it pretty easily based on these numbers! Despite playing a lot of single-high coverage and stacking the box, the Giants are terrible at stopping the run. Unless the Eagles’ offense makes a lot of mistakes, this should be a game that the Eagles score a lot of points.


Eagles Defense vs. Giants Offense

The Eagles’ defense numbers still look fantastic. Especially the pass defense! The Giants’ offense is pretty average. The EPA numbers suggest that they are a bit unlucky to rank 21st in points. It’s obvious that the running game is their strength and they will aim to establish that on early downs. If the Eagles can shut down the running game early, then the pass rush could feast again. The Giants’ pass protection is an obvious area of weakness that the Eagles will want to take advantage of.


Overall, the Giants’ numbers are not good but they do not turn the ball over and the defense does get turnovers which keeps them in a lot of games.

2 Key Matchups

Eagles vs. the blitz

The Eagles used to struggle hugely against the blitz but in the past few weeks they have been a lot better and this past week against the Titans they were excellent. Despite this, we know the Giants will blitz and test his Eagles’ offense.

So, how good is the Giants’ defense when the blitz? With 5 or more rushers, the Giants have allowed 94 completions on 155 attempts (61%) for 1106 yards (7.1 YPA) for 2 TDs and 1 INT. Those numbers are pretty impressive, especially only allowing 2 TDs on 155 attempts. In addition to that, they have 13 sacks and 91 pressures. I expect the Giants to keep blitzing this week.

In the past 4 weeks, Jalen Hurts has been 27/38 for 293 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. If the Giants want to bring it on, I am confident the Eagles will have some answers.

Early down run defense

Despite some poor run defense against the Packers, in the past 3 weeks, the Eagles’ run defense has been much better on 1st down than it was at the start of the year. On 1st down, the Eagles have given up 166 yards on 42 carries and 1 TD. They also have 10 ‘stuffs’ which has put them in favorable positions on 2nd down.

The Giants are going to keep running it on 1st down though, regardless of what the Eagles’ defense does. The Giants have 206 attempts on 1st down this year (3rd) for 885 yards (10th) and 8 TDs (5th). They haven’t been explosive on 1st down, but they will want to establish the run on Sunday and I expect the Eagles to stack on the box on 1st down once again.

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